Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Outline and compare frequentist view of probability and subjective Essay

Outline and compare frequentist view of probability and subjective view of probability - Essay Example Although experts like Frank P. Ramsey have referred to the frequentist methods more specifically and directly, the topic of subjective analyses has also been an important focal point in several academic debates. Building at least outlines of the frequentist and subjective views is thus necessary before embarking on a more detailed comparative analysis. Frequentist View of Probability Frequentist view of probability is relatively more common and popular perspective o probabilistic studies. According to Professor Norman Fenton, probability theory can be regarded as the body of knowledge which facilitates formal reasoning on uncertain events. Furthermore, Fenton states: â€Å"The populist view of probability is the so-called frequentist approach whereby the probability P of an uncertain event A, written P(A), is defined by the frequency of that event based on previous observations. For example, in the UK 50.9% of all babies born are girls; suppose then that we are interested in the eve nt A: 'a randomly selected baby is a girl'. According to the frequentist approach P(A)=0.509.† (Fenton, paragraph 1) Frequentist probability is therefore generally dependent on data collection and manipulation of available sample spaces, where a number of specimens and/or trial/error events can be observed. Contextually, Ramsey has stated that probability is of essential significance not only in the sphere of logic but also in the physical and statistical sciences. Academics and researchers cannot be sure in advance that the most functional interpretation of probability in logic will help in understanding the physical sciences too. The frequentative nature of probabilistic studies can thus be assumed as to have special stress on practical trial and error methods typical to most of the scientific and statistical research works. Subjective View of Probability Subjective view pf probability can be thought of as more affiliated to the philosophical antiquity of the subject. The su bjective view takes into account even the individual perspective of the observer with relation to an array of uncertain events. According to Albert (Paragraphs 3-4): â€Å"A subjective probability reflects a person's opinion about the likelihood of an event. If our event is "Joe will get an A in this class", then my opinion about the likelihood of this event is probably different from Joe's opinion about this event. Probabilities are personal and they will differ between people.† Therefore, subjective view is aimed at exploring the theory of probability from the viewpoint of an observer. Hence, it can be regarded as to have relativistic implications rather than practical fact finding approach. Comparative Analysis Similarities As early as 1926, Frank P. Ramsey pointed out the dualistic nature of understanding the subject of probability as a whole. He pointed out that there are two interpretations, those are subjective and objective views, related to the science and art of pro babilistic enquiry. In furtherance with such an approach, Ramsey (188-189) writes: â€Å"And in a sense we may say that the two interpretations are the objective and subjective aspects of the same inner meaning, just as formal logic can be interpreted objectively as a body of tautology and subjectively as the laws of consistent thought.†

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